Jan 9, 2012

Taliban in Doha, will Moscow be silent, and what are the implications on Damascus..??

Perhaps history do not repeat itself, and those who do not learn from history are repeated, and opening an office for Taliban in Qatar, is an indicator for a US escalation in the face of Russia, China, Pakistan and even Iran... But where is this escalation going..? and is Doha away from the implications of this escalation?
Until this day, until this day, only one Russian statement was out that denounced this unilateral step, but on the ground there are features of joint responses, that might lead later to make the US escalation, a true US drowning.

Taliban and Washington: Bill Clinton boycott Taliban and refused to recognize them, Bush senior welcomed them in USA, and Bush junior waged his war of Taliban and Afghanistan, and we can only describe Taliban as a wife raped by her husband (the Qaradawi way) anytime he wants, and make peace with her any time her wants.. and after about ten years of war on Afghanistan, Washington is back to the beginning, and with Washington's defeat in Iraq and realizing that the next defeat in Afghanistan is near, Washington went far in negotiating with Taliban solely, forgetting that there are countries affecting and previously affected with all what happened in Afghanistan, and will not stand there waiting to harvest the results of any US deal with Taliban.

Taliban office in Doha: perhaps the fastest implications of opening an office for Taliban in Qatar, was on Pakistan, which is primarily concerned with what's happening in Afghanistan in a direct way, and her tense relations with Washington which reached the point of emptying some of US bases there, even part of the Iranian escalation is a result for this unilateral step by the Americans.
In Kyrgyzstan, where the Iris revolution fell, and the US base rent cost Washington two Billion Dollars per year, the Kyrgyzstani president said that the US base is a danger to Kyrgyzstan, while the Afghani government welcomed the step, but cautiously, and stressed that the talks must be lead by Afghanis, which reflects the Afghan government concern of what happened, as for Haqqani network, it did not comment till this day on what happened, in return, China in a statement issued on 05/01/2012 was somewhat closer to the Afghan government position, as China wants reach a comprehensive peace, "Hong Lee" Chinese foreign ministry spokesman called to fully respect the Afghani government and people's choice, As for Russia who previously warned from any unilateral talks two months ago, her representative to the UNSC assured the importance of withdrawing all S forces from Afghanistan, also "Rogozin" reiterated at the end of last year, saying "When they negotiate behind closed doors, the future of Afghanistan, then they inform us that they are willing to withdraw from there at the end of 2014 permanently, we would like to tell them that we do not believe them", and according to him, Russia wants to participate in the talks about Afghanistan naturally, also Russia's envoy to Afghanistan  "Zamir Kabulov" said that the US will to create military basis in Afghanistan, after the withdraw of the international forces, raises great concerns to Russia.

 The implications of any unilateral US steps: Perhaps the tension of the US-Pakistani relations is not a serious indicator, but what is important is the growing strength of India's military power, at the expense of Washington seriously undermining Pakistan, as India is Russia's darling ally, same as Pakistan is a friend of China, and if the US project overcame many of the Chinese-Indian differences, any unilateral US move will have wide rebounds, and perhaps Asia get united against the US project, and it is expected in case Washington isolate Afghanistan neighbors from any talks with Taliban, Moscow will seek to overcome most of the differences between the region's countries, and as Russia and China previously solved their problems, and a "Good Neighbors" agreement was signed between them, also overcoming the Chinese-Indian differences in BRIC group, perhaps it will expand to place a schedule for agreement and overcoming the present differences in Asia, and if the US strike on Syria have created a resistant axis against Washington's policy, and strengthen the relations between some countries, any incalculated move for US in Afghanistan, was not a pressure point, and will never be a bargaining one, but it will strengthen and expand the anti-Washington policy alliance, and will enhance the Russian-Iranian, Chines-Iranian, Pakistani-Iranian and Indian-Iranian convergence, plus the Asian cooperation in general, and the aim will be burning Washington in Afghanistan, and perhaps will help in overcoming the differences between India and Pakistan.

Yes, Washington could solely negotiate with Taliban, but it cannot arrange its withdrawal and guarantee Afghanistan future without Afghanistan neighbors, specially that Iran refuses to enter any single bilateral negotiations with Washington, therefore, Taliban office in Doha do not cause any worrying, yet it will let us say to Washington (once again) thank you for creating an axis that puts an end to Washington reckless policies, and as the Kazakhstan analyst "Adel Mokashev" said: Washington (without knowing) pushed for the creation of a Chinese-Russian-Iranian alliance, and now she is about to create an Asian alliance.. unknowingly.

The Taliban office implications of the Syrian file: Ofcourse, Washington did not hesitate in using Afghan mercenaries in the terrorist actions in Syria, and parts of the armed groups were Afghans, and Taliban office in Doha will not change anything, and will not have any implications or anything new on the Syrian file, but does Washington think that the Syrian field will be compared to the Afghanistan one? Washington fully realize that the steps she made did not satisfy even the Afghan government even if it had supported it, and will be concluded to the burning of Washington in Afghanistan, similar to what happened in Iraq, and equating the Syrian field with the Afghan one will not be accepted, yet the conflict fields will be expanded and might include the US forces in the Gulf area, specially that great part of Taliban movement completely refuse negotiation with USA, specially that the Afghan resistance is not confined to Taliban, and Iran will not indulge in individual negotiations with USA, specially that now Iran is enjoying strategic agreements with Moscow due to the attack on Syria and the region's developments, as Iran is a powerful player in the Afghan field, so we can say that the US forces will not dream in keeping an bases after 2014, but there will be a reaction that might speed up the US withdrawal before 2014, and the implications of the singular US talks will be reflected on Washington allies and not on the Syrian file, and in case the terrorist acts continued in Damascus, there will be no field away from what is happening in Damascus, and the Syrian field cannot be met with the Afghan one, but the conflict will expand and Damascus will find herself among a wide alliance, that it benefits engage with hers.

The End..

Original Arabic article by Kifah Nssr - Juhaina News.

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