When will Syria prevail .. and where are the events heading??
Truth be told, the most frequent question now is, when is the victory?.. When would the battle end? previously I have avoided writing about this, i didn't even write my point of view in placing a scenario to the end of the events, because i knew exactly that the real victory, large part of it had been accomplished, so that the question is repeated once again, we want to know when will the final victory be? when the kidnapping and killing in Homs would stop?
Before i go into details and speculations, the most important question remains, when the blood bath stops in Homs, would the battle end? or does Washington have more in her pocket?... even though a quick reading to the events of the past four decades, will not only let the reader realize that we are close to victory in Homs, but even close to win the grand battle.. regardless of that, let us review what happened, as it might hold the answers within...
What did Syria achieve so far..?
In short: It is enough to take a look from the top over the events, to find that the joints of the conflict are based on three basic stages:
1- The attempt to inflame and burn Syria, divide it and destroy it completely, which lasted from March till May, which i have wrote about in the "Blue Jasmine" chapters, and the demonstrations were in (Daraa, Banias, Homs, Latakia and Douma) .. not all the cards of this stage were invested, as it had completely fell.
2- The stage of creating a "Buffer Zone" in northern Syria starting from inside Syria, and creating a hotbed of security tension that would exhaust Syria and the army... This stage began end May, along with the president issuing an amnesty on the MBs, and ended with Ahmed Davutoglu's visit to Syria, and all fantasies fell before mid August, and expanded to invest what could be done in Der Azour if the "Blue Jasmine" succeeded, when the USA depleted one of the means of pressure in her hands, and the essence of the conflict was in (Hama, Jisr Al Shughur and Der Azour)..
3- The stage of psychological warfare, by threatening and intimidating and investing what's left of cards and threatening to establish a Buffer Zone from Turkey, not from inside Syria, and raise the economic and media pressure to the highest levels, this stage fell before it even began, as it began in mid August, when they planed to send a military force led by Harmoush to invade a village, then the Arab League would recognize the SNC, but Harmoush showed up on Syrian TV after being arrested in Turkey, here when part of this stage fell, and the plan continued with threats and intimidation, and this stage fell completely with the Syrian missiles maneuvers and imposing Syrian sanctions on Turkey, and threatening to respond to any Arab sanctions... And as we know, their dreams vaporized, so their was the conflict (the attempt to invest all cards) , but the real move was only mainly on the Turkish and Lebanese boarders..
What's happening now, specially in Homs..?
Once Walid A Muallem held his conference, and the Syrian Arab forces achieved their expanded military maneuver.. the US started losing her temper, and went crazy, and began sending gangs and direct attacks and target important economical structures, and execute kidnaps, killings and explosions, specially in the most important focal point.. Homs, and on the boarder areas... Here i say, the question must not be "When this will be over?" but "Did the US lose all her cards so that she stated acting insanely?, Is the US covering her security withdraw from Syria? or they monitored a Syrian move that forced them to restrain?"... Yes my dears, at the end of every battle, each card must be invested, as the end of the battle is its hardest days, because when the battle is over, each fighter will have what he got, for this reason, it is enough to see blood on the streets, and in the same time, ambassadors coming back to Damascus and Arab countries trying (under the table) open a new page with Damascus... However, these remain as indicators that we cannot rely on when guessing what will happen..
From the above mentioned, and before expanding and looking into details, the only answer about the question "When we will win?" is that what separate us from victory, is a new victory, as we are entitled to victory and we have no other choice but victory...
A note in economy..
After ten months of fighting, it is natural to show some results of bad economy, specially that Syria lost her tourism income, in addition to the unprecedented pressure on the Syrian economy, and regardless of the high prices, and that the effects of what happened clearly shows.. but what is astonishing is that Syria strangely stood strong... but what i want to discuss is the rise of the Dollar exchange about 5 SYPs, maybe more.. is it because of the Arab and Turkish sanctions? certainly not, as with the cession of the Turkish imports, it is natural that the Dollar exchange drop, but why it had risen despite the abandonment of approximately one Billion Dollars of imports in favor of the national products... Here i tell the reader: Yes, Syria's need for the Dollar decreased, yet the Dollar price had risen, and although the government is capable on destroying the Dollar in the market, yet she kept it, and the real reason is that the rise of the currency exchange is part of protecting the citizen , as it increase the prices of luxury and some of the technology, and decrease the prices of the main and national materials... Yes, Washington is fighting with China, so that China would rise the value of Yuan, and if Syria had technology industry same as China, she would rise the Dollar value up to 100 SYP on purpose, for this reason, every one must know that our economy is good and what's happening is a natural result to the change of some markets and products, in addition to about 10 months of economical pressure against Syria, so every one must know that what's happening is a result of Syrian actions, and consequently will return good at the citizen and the industrialists, and the merchants must adopt with the new situation, and when they do, everything will be good, and who wants to participate in the victory, must buy the Syrian products first... as for the Arab sanctions, Syria could endure it, but the Arab cannot, so there is no worry regarding the economical pressure like we did back in 1985, as today, the world is entirely different and Syria is completely different as well, as yesterday our economy was weak, and the west owned the keys to the world economy, but today, Syria -between all the countries of the third world- have food and medication security, yet even the region's food security is related to Syria, and the west is weak, with the presence of alternatives to Syria's allies... Here i remind those of weak souls back in 1985 when they started buying the Dollar hoping for benefits, and they lost Millions due to their bad judgment, i tell them not to repeat what they did, specially with the US defeat in Iraq an the US debt reached over 15 Thousand Billion Dollars , as who lost 5 SYPs in 1985 Dollar, now will lose much more if he would think of it as his way to profit, as the difference of one SYP from the SYP value he will lose several pounds over the gold value later, and to remember that the value of one ounce of gold was 335 Dollars several years ago, and today its more than 1700 Dollar, and i wold like to advice those of weak souls to side with the strong, not with the weak.
Bound to confrontation and victory..
It's not Syria who started the battle, but the battle imposed itself on Syria, and it's good to feel at the end of the battle, that Syria did not only defended herself, but even directed strikes, and maybe these present weeks are the toughest and most painful, but every one must know that the US who wage the war still possess some cards, and still able move it when the situation in Homs is about to be solved , maybe use it in another place, and despite the importance of ending the situation on the ground, the foreign decision is the interval, but when 2011 ends, Washington's position will be very difficult, and the US is now in a delicate situation, and her actions are unpredictable, as the US escalation is considered a suicide, and the US withdraw is also a suicide.. and i think that Washington is escalating the media attack in an attempt to drag Syria into starting a conflict, and who start the conflict (according to US) is the loser, and the situation reaching a military conflict will mean a US suicide with all what this word means, regardless of who start the conflict, so i think that the year 2012 will either be the end of the battle, or a bone breaking battle on the region level, that will give the entire region a taste of what Syria witnessed in the last ten months, and in personal opinion, not based on any information, the end of 2011 will be the end of most of the dangerous stuff, but the media escalation will continue...
Original Arab article by Kefah Nssr - Jouhaina News.