Intro - The Russians and Americans still insist, each pole with what it represent, that the arm competition did not start yet, and that the world is not living a cold war, despite the fact that the cold war is present since ten years, and despite the presence of a real arm competition, yet even a star war, it even reached a direct level of collision of fleets... so is the world on the brink of a historical conciliation? or on the brink of new wars? and were the past three weeks really like standing on the edge of a cliff? and that WW3 almost happened? Have the danger of a universal war gone??
The collision is present - The overall shape of the current situation is not just fear of an already going arm competition, yet it is fear from the developments of the current engagements into becoming armed ones, but in the same time, information had been leaked within the news lines, that along with the course of the military escalation, there are hot and keen negotiations, and present attempts for conciliation.
Moscow - Washington: The basic conflict between Moscow and Washington are about the gas resources to Europe, and the anti-missile shield.. nothing more.. As Moscow could only understand the anti-missile shield system in Poland as an aggressive act against her, and the war on the Russian gas (in the allegation of fighting monopoly) and not on Russian oil which its outwards to Europe are more than the gas outwards, so Russia considered it as an aggressive act against her..
These files created wide conflict fields between Moscow and Washington, from east Europe to Middle Asia and North Africa... not forgetting ofcourse the Middle East.
Beijing - Washington: As for the keen files between Beijing and Washington, specially in Iran and Africa, these are open files, even if they settle a bit, and since the beginning of December 2011, the Americans are implying an over-scale war in the region, maybe as a frightening policy, and maybe to check the strength of Russia and China, but the Russians and Chinese response was conclusive, that it brought back the memory of the Cuban missile crisis, so as soon as Washington implied that she is about to wage war on Iran and Syria, the Chinese president announced his warnings publicly by ordering the Chinese naval forces to be fully prepared to protect the Chinese national security... while Russia deployed and enhanced its forces and set them on the "ready mode" starting from southern Caucasus, Caspian sea, Black sea and to sending her fleet to the Mediterranean.
Russia, China, Syria and Iran started showing their strength and powers, as China decided to to fight along with Iran, and Russia decided to fight along with Syria... And as one of the experts said: "We should thank Washington for uniting her enemies"..
The shadow of war: Maybe the world lived the fear of few terrifying weeks, and those who are close to the decision departments realized that a small error could fuel the world, but all the sudden, this tension stopped, even if some said that the shadow of war still there, but personally, i did not sense this shadow, even though what happened was far more dangerous from the Cuban missile crisis, as Washington do not dare wage war against Iran and Syria before exhausting them, similar to what she did in Iraq.
This is why we can read that the coming U.S target is not Syria nor Iran, it is Armenia, and besieging Syria and Iran economically, as the Americans admit their failure in overthrowing Syria since time now, and fully realize that their only option for all their projects is to approach the Caspian sea and move the conflict directly to Middle Asia, as their battle field in Afghanistan is flaming.. so, could the U.S project succeed while the world is approaching a new economical crisis in 2012?
The Syrian file within the conflict: Perhaps raising the military tension level, and implying a WW3 coincided with the attempt to create a buffer zone northern Syria, similar to Darfur territory, which i mentioned before, therefore Washington was not at all serious by threatening with a full-scale war, yet it was to cover their acts in exhausting Syria, but the entire thing failed, it even confused Washington and her allies, as when the world thought that Washington and her Arab, Turks, and Israeli allies were all about to wage war on Iran and Syria, Washington expected that this intimidation will ease up creating a Syrian Darfur, but the harsh Russian and Chinese response completely confused her.
Conflict fields: Certainly the year 2012 will witness conflicts on many fields, specially in North Africa where the battle already going (Nigeria and Uganda) plus the fields of the Middle East and Middle Asia, but the latest developments started imposing a new nature for these conflicts.
What happened in Syria united Russia, China, Iran, Syria, India and many countries who demand a multi-polar world in one trench..
To say that the presence of the Eurasian nucleus that started from Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan as a custom union, adding to them Tajikistan, Armenia and Kirghistan forming all together the nucleus for a Eurasian union along with talks on creating a rescue box... and in parallel with the U.S withdrawal from Iraq, Turkey will become a weak point to USA, this is why the most important conflict fields in 2012 and maybe what's after it is the attempt of Russia and her allies to contain Turkey, and the attempt of Washington and her allies to contain Armenia ... and the French-Israeli flattering with the Armenians and the Armenian holocaust is only a try to pounce Armenia, but it is certain that Russia achieved very important steps in diversifying her economy, while Washington and her allies are living the worst financial crisis on the brink of a global recession.
Conclusion- Perhaps what would solve the west's problems, is a big war, but the bill for this war cannot be paid, so mostly the cold war will be extended.
In parallel to many indicators that point to intense negotiations for conciliation, even if this conciliation seem impossible before five more years, as the new geo-political maps will be drawn through it, unless one party decide to fill the space left by the .S in the region, but all indicators point to extending the cold war, and all indications point that the presence of Israel started to contradict with the western interests one way or another, as the great nuclear country became a U.S weak point, and it is certain that Moscow and Beijing will not stand still, watching the wounded U.S bear taking its time to heal from his wounds and wage new attacks that threaten their interests.
Arabic article by Kifah Nassr - Jouhaina News.