Jan 5, 2012

Putin smiles victorious in Syria .. and Al Assad will smile soon.

Few months ago, i wrote that the war of gas is the essence of the Arab spring, and the reason of the invasion on Lebanon, and later the invasion on Syria, and what i wrote 4 months ago, most of the analysts adopted now, some of them even considered it as over reacting back then, and when the dust of the battle vanished, it was completely clear that what happened was a war of gas, and in the beginning of the articles i wrote about dangers of the increased demand of gas on the US economy, and the US currency, and later i wrote about the danger of providing an alternative of the Russian gas on Russia, it is a war of existence between Russia and Washington, that inflamed a cold war since 2001 and till this day, and the victory of Syria means the victory of Russia, and fragmenting Syria ad Lebanon means Washington victory and Russia complete isolation.

I wrote in my previous article, collision of fleets, the end of the cold war, or the beginning or the hot war? as a description of what the world lived over terror in the end of 2011, even if the military movement was far from the street talks, and i repeat my personal opinion, that Washington is not about to wage war, and might extend the cold war, so the conflict would start in Middle Asia.. and in the same article i wrote about the indicators of a compromise, so what are those indicators? and is the cold war about to finish?

Features of the settlement..

During the past months, the features of a  settlement was leaked, and today in precise, it became more clear and we can write about it, as since the end of May, when the Nabucco pipeline project was postponed till 2017, it was obvious that the operation of overthrowing Syria or the regime became as rosy dreams, and behind the scenes started world wide negotiations, and features of the  settlement  began to appear, as the EU gave the Russian gas an exception from a law  passed by the Europeans originally to crack down on the Russian gas, and despite the emergence of news about inspecting "Gasprom" premises in Europe, from another side, a French company was signing the "Southern Stream" pipeline agreement, and at the beginning of December 2011, the events accelerated, and reached a point of collision of fleets and playing the war drums.. and all the sudden the tension began to calm down, and the features of the  settlement  started to show.

The Russian gas in Turkey..

The media did not hide the news about the crisis between Russia and Turkey regarding the export of gas, as the Russians decided not to sell gas to Turkey without their commitment not to sell it back, and Turkey refused the Russian conditions.. I wrote previously that Turkey have one month to negotiate, and during this month a Turkish-Azerbaijani contract was signed with 6 Billion M3 for Turkey, and 10 Billion M3 for Europe, The Turkish-Russian agreement had been signed, and the news was announced on 27/12/2011 i.e 4 days before the Turkish gas contract expired, the Russians agreed to re-supply Turkey with gas with a contract for more than ten years.. i did not comment on this news as i was waiting for its details, as Russia was negotiating with Turkey, and it is hard to renew the gas contract for free, and after one day, the feature of what happened started to appear, when Putin received from the Turkish minister of energy a document that allows Russia to pass the "Southern Stream" pipeline in her economic maritime area...  Alexei Miller , "Gasprom" manager said that the "Southern Stream" will commence its work in 2015, two years before the Nabucco pipeline which is backed by USA, knowing that Nabucco pipeline and till this day is out of gas resources.

In the  settlement  features, there is an increased talks about "ITGI" gas pipeline (Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy) that can carry 10 Billion M3 of gas reaching Greece, and not 31 Billion M3, it is the 10 Billion which Azerbaijan will provide Turkey and the EU with, but will Moscow hinder this pipeline, or is there a grand deal (which is obvious there is) that turned Russia into a victorious country.

The implication of  what happened..?

Perhaps the smile of Putin was enough when he declared that Turkey allowed to pass the "Southern Stream" gas pipeline, with the support of Europe, so that he announced the victory of Russia, but when "Alexei Miller"  (Gasprom manager) that the "Southern Stream" is attached to Ukraine, and we all know that the "Southern Stream" is destroying the Ukrainian economy, as the Ukrainian pipeline network is one of the biggest companies in the world, that pass through it more than 55 Billion M3 of gas, therefore, Ukraine became a foregone conclusion under the Russian influence, and the EU must present support to Russia to acquire the gas supplies from Ukraine, or participate with the Russian in many sites which will be affected by the "Southern Stream".

It is not going to end here, as from the Russian boarders now, three gas supply pipeline are out, (Nord Stream, the pipelines through Belarus and the pipelines through Ukraine), and in 2015 there will be also the "Southern Stream", therefore, in the future, the Nabucco line cannot compete with the Russian gas, as Russia will not stop the gas supply if the request on it reduced by sea.. yet by land.. and with the sea pieplines, the supply lines became permanent and safe and do not stop no matter what... Therefore, competing with the land pipelines will leave implications that will frighten the Europeans, and from another side, Putin succeeded in the beginning in reducing the Russian economy dependence on crude and has the time to follow-up, we can say that the projects that target Russia had failed or failing, this is why Russia will move from defense to offense, and manifest as a global pole that cannot be crossed, and that the gas card is about to fall, and what remains is the card of the anti-missile shield, even though changing the course of the "Southern Stream" leaves small chances, but still neglected as the grand title will be the anti-missile shield.

In the reasons of what happened..?

The US forces mobilized, and some of their parts where moved, along with Israeli forces, as if they were to direct a hit to Iran and a hit to Syria, but there was mobilization for Russian forces in Armenia, south Ossetia, south Caucasus, the Black sea and the Caspian sea... the Russian fleets moved to the Mediterranean, and the Chinese president (out loud) asked his navy forces to be prepared and ready for war, as China decided to defend Iran, and Russia decided to defend Syria, and even thought the tension is present and the fleets still in the sea, but it is clear that the Europeans are entering a compromise, even if Sarkuzi (who is leaving the power soon) and behind him London and Washington are not satisfied with what's going on, and the only problem that terrifies them is the Iranian gas pipeline, as according to European laws is increasing the sources of power and reduced the dangers of monopolizm, and geopoliticaly  isolates Israel, yet even drags Egypt to the Syrian-Iranian lap, therefore maybe the cold war might expand, but the hottest file is with Syria now, it is the peaceful process, not the Mediterranean gas, even if the Mediterranean gas will remain the conflict place, but what the war was waged for has failed or about to fail, and i hope Arabs could understand what happened.

In conclusion..!

Syria not falling, and the Russian victory in Syria, will force Turkey to clash with Israel later, and the escalation against Turkey is an indicator that Turkey (one way or another) is on the road to containment, specially with the expansion of the nucleus of the Eurasian union, as there was a change in the political interests in the region, and maybe now president Assad is not in need to Erdogan as a middle man for the negotiation process, but if Erdogan wants to learn from what happened, he is in need of president Assad to end the Turkish-Armenian conflict, and Erdogan fully realize that president Assad will smile soon, and fully realize that the cold war will not change the balances of powers, yet he has to choose between the European Union and the Eurasian union, between isolation in hope to join the European union, or fusion with the region to become the gate of the European union.

Yes, the Nigerian bombings are US messages to the Russians, and the movement in Kazakhstan was a British message, and the French pressure on Turkey is also a message, but with the readiness of the world to enter the new recession, will the west understand that the time factor is now in the benefit of Russia, Chine and their allies? maybe.. but it is sure that what was settled so far happened in a Russian kneeling process for the west, and not a western generosity, and the next years will witness grand geopolitical changes, and might reach the end of the cold war.

The End..

Original Arab article by Kiffah Nssr... Jouhaina News.

1 comment:

  1. That was very good reading.. thanks for the really good news! :D


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