Jan 14, 2012

About the coming war, when Hormuz strait is closed by Iran.

In the news: - Moscow sees that imposing new sanctions against Iran, and the possibility of directing a military strike at this country, represent an attempt to change the regime.. A in a statement to "Interfax" agency, "Gennady Getalov", Russia FM deputy, announced that the extra sanctions on Iran, and possible military strike on this country, the international community will consider it as an aim to change the regime in Tehran.

Intro and a reminder: - I previously wrote, in an article about the cold war, that tension reached its peak at the end of last year in the Gulf area, and i have pretended that the tension was partially over, even though others used to say that any mistake will ignite the entire area.. now the tension is back again, but in a different way, the tension returned after the EU decided to add more restrictions over the Iranian oil, and Iran warning to close Hormuz strait, so we have to talk about the implications and where we are going with it.

In the energy war: - At the end of last year, the Turkish energy minister gave Russia the document that made the installation of the "Southern Stream" very close to application, and during the meeting between "Alexei Miller", president of "Gazprom" with "Putin" and "Medvedev" each in a separate meeting, he urged Russia rulers on the necessity to start the implementation of this pipeline this year, not the coming year.. Thus, new ballances started to draw in the world, but in return, Washington is back to the talks about the "Mud gas" or "Shale gas", and thus talks about this gas will harm Washington before it harm Moscow , but it is unable during the next 10 years to change the gas market, and Russia might not need more than 10 years to achieve changes in her economic structure.. Thus was the talks about Ukraine decreasing its Russian gas imports to the half, but the most important in this year (2012) is Iran warning to close Hormuz strait, and the most controversial question this year: - Is the Iranian warning represent a response to the possible EU sanction on Tehran? or is it a Russian threat to Europe and Washington to convey a message to the west, that Russia is here.?

Moscow-Tehran, an unannounced alliance: - The Kazakh strategic expert "Adil Mukashev" says that "Washington  unknowingly, pushed to the creation of a Russian, Chinese and Iranian unannounced alliance".
Yes, the Iranian and Russian relations are Moscow's most complicated ones, but with Iran's alliance with Syria and the resistance, she managed to impose herself as a balance point, and amid the latest events, Iran got a lot of concessions from Russia, and despite all complications of the last few months, Moscow and Tehran produced a strategic agreement, that for the first time it took a security impression, it is not a coincident, that in the same time of declaring the Russian-Iranian agreement, Tehran dropped a "US drone" in a very complicated electronic war, that countries like France and UK could not achieve... Yes, Russia is bound to reach Hormuz strait, and Iran manage impose herself as regional player, to the point of starting enrich the Uranium to 20%, over the objections of Moscow who wants to export this fuel to Iran.

The US confusion: - Washington fully realized that the Iranian warning is not a joke, and has sent the aircraft carrier "Carl Vinson" fleet, noting that in coincidence with the Iranian warning, Washington sent the aircraft carrier "John Stennis" fleet, the same was done by UK, that sent the "Darring" destroyer to back up about six British ships, all that because the Americans fully realize that the Iranian warning is serious, and most importantly, that those battleships are to reassure the Arab moderation about their future, because Iran warning means that "Israel and the ruling families in the Gulf are unable ensure energy supplies", therefore, the kings and princes of the Gulf are only invaluable cards in the international policy, but luckily for them, Iran has an eye for Palestine, not them.

The US drowning: - These developments, coincide with Obama's request to raise the US debt ceiling one more time about 1200 Billion Dollars, to become the third US debt ceiling, and he knows very well, that before the end of this year will reach the second debt ceiling , knowing that the US deficit last year was 1300 Billion Dollars.. These developments come along with a deep European crisis, specially in the countries that import the Iranian oil (Spain, Italy and Greece) this crisis is also approaching France (the second European economy), as well as the restructuring of the US forces, and the US defense budget cut, and the US withdrawing combat brigades from Europe.

Is it possible to Tehran to close Hormuz strait?: - The more logical question will be if Washington is capable pay the costs of any war in the Arab Gulf, would she send her battleships after the Iranian warning? or she would have them sent before the Iranian warning? the war in the Arab Gulf comes with two sides, the reader realize that the first side is that 40% of the world oil pass through Hormuz strait, but the side no one talked about, is cutting the Qatari liquidized gas supplies, noting that Qatar is the world's largest liquidized gas exporter, which is competitive to the Russian and Algerian gas in Europe, the gas that London enjoys with preferable prices, therefore, when Ukraine say that she might reduce buying the Russian gas to 27 Billion M3, that means the Iranian warning is in the same time a message to the west and Ukraine that is negotiating with Russia to sell half of the Ukrainian gas network to Gazprom, therefore, even though the Iranian warning is an Iranian message, but in the same time it is a Russian strict message, and the surprises presented in the Iranian maneuvers, are Iranian surprises, but in case of any clash, Washington fully realize that Iran "GOT" surprises, perhaps left by the Russian and Chinese to turn over the region's balances.. Washington fully realize that she will not be able respond to any Iranian escalation in Hormuz strait, and realize that she excels with her navy, but her enemies now have weapons of Land-Sea and Sea-Sea , that put an end to this US superiority, starting from Hizbullah, to Syria, Algeria, Iran, Democratic Korea and the countries of Latin America, and all who say "NO" to Washington... Washington fully realize that her fleets are not the lady of the world oceans any more, this development comes after Russia deployed her most advanced air-space defense system in the world, and supplied the Russian army with "Russian Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS)" and added the Russian submarine "Yury Dolgorukiy" to the Russian nuclear combat formations, after a successful mission in double- launching the "Bulava" missile, plus revealing planes of the (5 and 4++) generations, therefore the Russian escalation comes with an unprecedented military escalation on every level, and accompanied with a US sliding on every level.

Where things are headed?: - It is not likely (yet somewhat impossible) that Washington would gamble in pressuring on any axis that could lead to lose initiation, specially that now the escalation is not coming from the US, but the US is in a response mode, and Washington realize that any war in the region is a disaster to her and to Europe, no matter what the result will be, and it is impossible for her to accept the concept of war, but she has to submit to Iran conditions, as Iran is fully capable on closing Hormuz strait, and Washington is unable afford the costs of just trying to open Hormuz strait, and Washington would have to sit with the Russians and discuss many issues, and the EU will have to go back to the negotiation table with Iran...
Going back to the news, we find that Russia is not worried about Iran, but warn about the Russian response, and perhaps preparing a new phase produced by Russia, titled the "Precautions Strikes".

Note: - With the announcement of opening an office to Taliban in Doha (read my latest article), and coinciding with Taliban declaring its readiness to negotiate on stopping the fight, a movie clip was leaked about US soldiers urinating on Afghan dead bodies.. i have asked a friend who is a journalist in a decision-making country: Is this clip part of Wikileaks, that will flip the table over Washington's face?, he smiled with a satanic smile and said: the world is always changing..

The End...

Original Arabic article by Kefah Nssr - Jouhaina News.

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