Aug 23, 2011

U.S operation "Snow Ball" to topple the Syrian regime... by: Sami Clipp of "Assafir"

When Russia' Caesar decided to exile Jews from his lands, a Jew man stood at his door and behind him his wife and sons and said begging the Caesar: "Master, if you let me live with you for two years, i will teach your dog to speak Russian as a human being".. The Caesar looked at him wondering and answered in warning: "I will accept your offer, but if the dog do not speak.. i will execute you and your family"..

The Jew was very happy, and returned home with his family to face his wife's fury who shouted at him and said: "What have you done to us?? do you want him to kill us??".. The Jew husband laughed and answered his wife: "After two years either the Caesar or me or the dog will die, time could change everything darling"...

Seems that Washington has completely understood the secrets behind the Syrian strategy, and among these secrets the timing game. Late president Hafez Al Asad mastered this game and won by his intelligent decisions a lot of equations between the Soviet Union and the USA. President Bashar Al Asad knows exactly the value of waiting, in which it means to strictly stabilize the internal security and wait for regional and international variations. As the Middle East region is loaded with changes and surprises. 

And because Washington understood the Syrian strategy, She will try by any means prevent Al-Assad from benefiting from the "time game".
Reliable informations from Washington say that the U.S ambassador at Damascus "Robert Ford" recently came back from his country with a clear work plan to accelerate the steps order topple Assad regime.. it is the "Snow Ball", this plan implies to push the opposition to unite their lines as fast as possible, and to agree on a political declaration of only one page which will entitle the next stage... also to "seriously" look for a number of Syrian officers who could form a military council, on conditions that they must follow the terms related to free elections, reforms, U.S interests and the relations with Israel..
The U.S ambassador at Damascus (who knows many languages including Arabic) had been welcomed in Washington hugely, were president Obama held a relatively long meeting with him, and he also met with secretary of state "Hilary Clinton" and national security officials in addition to intelligence officials... Information say that Ford returned from those meetings with the following password: "Our decision that Assad had lost his legitimacy, and any talks regarding reforms is no longer useful.. what only required from him now is to stop military operations and withdraw his army"..

This U.S position came after sufficient reports carried by ambassador Ford regarding the opposition movements and especially the "coordinating parties".. it also came after his visit to Hama, which its circumstances remained obscure regarding how he got to this city and met with its officials (analysts and opposition who mostly belong to the brotherhood) .. 

When Ford returned from Hama, he narrated that he was surprised that Islamists there setting a country within their country, as they have their own leadership and security measurements and their own protection methods.. 

How did Ford reach Hama?
Security sources indicate that the U.S ambassador used a smart trick to reach Hama.. he resorted to a previous agreement between Damascus and Washington allows only the U.S military attache to roam through the Syrian areas by just presenting an application to the military command.. which means that this attache is capable to move freely before or without being granted the permission... the ambassador moved through the attache's car and under his name.. the Syrian response came furious as they later on prevented him from moving more that 25KM from his residence in Damascus.. Washington replied with a similar attitude toward the Syrian ambassador in U.S.. but Ford returned after a while to ask "officially" to visit Aleppo... the Syrian response was that his safety prevents the foreign ministry from granting him permission.... he replied: "Does that mean that the Syrian security is unable to keep the order in this area??"... seem that Damascus decided to neglect this question, because they understood the meaning of it..  

Ford's visit to Hama was acknowledged as a heroic act.. Washington hoped this will inflame the protests int he city and it's countryside.. and flame the Arabian sectarian feelings toward Assad regime.. and there is a third target "beyond vision" and attached to the U.S desire in responding to Ankara's demands.. as Turkish PM Erdogan informed the American administration along with some Arab leaders and Syria itself, that Hama is a "personal issue" and he vowed to protect it.. it seems he said the same to some Muslim Brotherhood members.

Obama, and Clinton before him, initiated to greet ambassador Ford on what he did in Hama.. as the U.S administration are now sure that Ford (who has great history in many Arab countries at the reign of George Bosh from Algeria, Morocco, Turkey, Egypt to Iraq and Syria) was the best choice for Obama to Damascus despite the resentment for some republicans and democrats... Obama succeeded in imposing his point of view regarding the ambassador on the U.S congress.

It was "eye catching" that Ford remained in Damascus, while several gulf ambassadors left Syria under U.S pressure firstly and secondly, objecting the security repression on protesters... and what's more weird is to keep the ambassador in Damascus after Obama announced that Assad must leave.

This exactly bare the assumption that the man carries indeed a well organized plan to support the Syrian street against the leadership.. there are serious talks among the officials recently returning from the U.S that the search is undergoing on how to move the "Snow Ball" in the street.. it had been said that the urging demands by the west ,and Turkey as well, to withdraw the army from the streets and stop the military actions, pave the way to implement this plan... it had been cleared for Americans, that the "coordinating parties" are the best way to move the street and not the "well know" opposition figures. 
Clinton's meeting with some members of the opposition disappointing for the U.S administration's hopes... other meetings were held secretly with other members of the opposition... the U.S administration was convinced that they must move within Syria.. which require providing a suitable atmosphere.
Pressure will mount in the coming phase to withdraw the army.

Semi-official Syrian diplomats, point that the leadership realized from the beginning that being easy with the security situation will increase the possibility of the foreign influence on the Syrian street... and this was one of the aims on tightening the security fist.. not just being worried from armed men. 

In her search for external leaning areas to implement the "Snow Ball" plan, The U.S administration pressed on Gulf countries to issue a position against Syria... the formal Gulf position came by issuing the GCC's statement and the King Abdulla's written declaration were surprising for the Syrian leadership... delicate diplomatic information in Damascus indicate that president Assad was sometimes receiving phone calls from high rank Gulf officials stressing their stand by his side, and that they do not wish his regime to fall, but that he must end the security operations as soon as possible.
Those assure that king Abdullah himself was an initiator from the beginning of the events in Syria to contact president Assad and inform his pro attitude..
The Gulf communications did not stop.. vise PM of the UAE sheikh "Mohamad ben Rashed Al Maktoom" assured those who are close to him, that he believes the Syrian story regarding the armed men, and he kept the communications with president Assad.
The same diplomatic information point that gulf commanders communications with the Syrian leadership are still going despite withdrawing their ambassadors from Damascus.

Damascus did not respond to the Gulf positions, moreover, she made sure from the beginning not to declare publicly their resentment from the Qatari leadership despite all what she say regarding "Al Jazeera" role in flaming the Syrian street... President Assad said nothing in his interview with the Syrian TV about the Gulf position.. some interpret this as a desire to succeed the aimed efforts to continue the communications with the Gulf, specially with Saudi and UAE.

Qatar stand alone in flaming the Syrian resentment.. it had been said that Qatar's prince's communications with president Assad continued, specially in the first two months of the Syrian dilemma, but with strange positions... some say that "Snow Ball" plan of the U.S needed a strong media arm... "Al Jazeera" and "Alarabiya" went directly into the Syrian direct accusation circle.. the accusation also reached Saudi and Qatari newspapers. 

Others say, Qatar prince calls with Tehran was to know the true position of Iran toward Syria, and the possibility to convince the Iranian leadership that president Assad fall will not affect Tehran's relation with Damascus later.. and that Iran has a benefit of being neutral regarding the Syrian situation in return that the west will offer her facilities such as lifting sanctions starting from the "step by step" policy which was been set recently.
The people of this theory say that there are attempts to move toward Iran and convince her that the Muslim Brotherhood are not against her, and they understand the Iranian position saying "what's happening in the Middle East is an Islamic waking" ... some mock these informations and say that Iran do not accept any argument regarding the possibility of the Syrian regime fall.. quite the contrary, Iran intensified its diplomatic efforts and its international and regional seductions  to aid the Syrian regime and fight against any foreign intervention.

The advanced relations between Iran and Egypt are starting to bloom.. An Egyptian official close to the military foundation say that the military council do not want the Syrian regime fall.. and he indicates that an argument had been held recently withing the Egyptian command after some had implied the possibility that Syria and Iran are responsible of the Illat attack.. Military leaders refused this.. does the Iranian/Egyptian approach have a part in it??

One of President Assad's guests, quoted on his behalf a clear stand towards Iran. The Syrian president said that he considers the European position toward his country as "Ugly"... he explained that the Europeans asked him to disassemble the alliance with Iran or to ease their interests with Tehran.. he assured his refusal to this, moreover he said that the former French president "Jacques Chirac" was right when he said to the present president "Sarkuzy" that he will not gain anything from his approach to the Syrian leadership, because "Chirac" knows that he didn't gain anything regarding the Iranian file.

As for Turkey, the diplomat related to the Gulf countries explains that Saudi Arabia is not comfortable from the appropriation of Turkey regarding the Syrian file.
He confirms that king Abdulla's declaration was moderate, were it talked about the necessity of "Wisdom" in the Syrian file.. a Saudi position had to be issued, not just due to the American pressures, but because Riyad will not allow Ankara to be the "Sunni chaperon" for the Syrian people or the region.

This belief consolidate around the Saudi resentment from the Turkish appropriation, after the information leaked from the Turkish/Iranian communications... Davutoglu's visit to Tehran enraged Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries,... Turkey had to explain the situation later on to Saudi Arabia... as the aim was to stop the violence in Syria and calm the situation and convince Assad to withdraw the army .. nothing more..

It is not important -from the Syrian stand- to know which regional country is resenting the other.. the most important is to observe its influence inside Syria... When the U.S administration raised the idea of Saudi and Turkey ask Assad to step down, this administration was fully aware that the Saudi resentment from the American sponsor for the Turkish role in the Syrian file was clear.
Washington sought to satisfy Riyad, but the aim remained the same "there has to be a regional Sunni axis participate in expanding the "Snow Ball" and form a wall against the Iranian intervention".

In this regard, there are Arabian countries pressing on Hamas movement to go out of Syria forever... some try to drag the movement to the Muslim Brotherhood general stand and to the International union for the Muslim scholars in order to speak loudly in condemning the Syrian regime.. this bump in many stands from the prominent leaders of the movement... "Khaled Meshaal" the political office leader assures his visitors that no one ever presented or supported to the movement  like p\resident Assad did.
It is obvious that pressure mound to disassemble the alliance between Hamas and Damascus, in the allegation that ending the Syrian scene means that the Muslim Brotherhood will reach the power or main parts of it in Syria.. and that the situation of the movement with the next regime in Syria will better.

For whose benefit the time plays??
The regional view changes in the current time.. 
- Turkish-Kurd battles are intensifying... 
- Iran blurry shows that she -again- entered the Kurdish file... 
- Iraq is boiling politically and security basis regarding the future of the American troops in ti... 
- Israel flame with the suicidal mission in Illat then its barbarian attacks on Gazza...
- Egyptian-Israeli relations tense...
- The Palestinian movement re-activate regarding the declaration of the Palestinian state in the United  Nations... 
- America press on Israel to apologize to Turkey for their massacre against Turks in "Freedom Flotilla" mission to Gazza, Washington thinks this apology is important in exchange to USA back up to Israeli efforts against the Palestinian state.. Turks are waiting the apology facing all prospects in this view..

The American "Snow Ball" could continue in Syria, but the price will be very expensive.. The Syrian leadership will not leave the security file escape from their hands again.. and the "coordinating parties" know that any power regain from the Syrian leadership side means paying an expensive price later on..
President Assad sought to withdraw the carpet through his televised interview on August  21th and set calendar schedules for the reforms.. The opposition hurried by saying this is too late... the internal battle is nominated  for shocks will not be settled soon... the battle is still going and might be long.. and president Assad intended in his televised interview to assure the state and security's power, similar to his intention talk in detail about what's happened in the central committee meeting for the Baath party.. as the party is the first priority for the regime in the next step... the battle is still long, but the tensions in the region bringing the situation about to the Jew's logic who was waiting at the Caesar's door.. so for whose benefit the time will play?

The End..

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