Aug 23, 2011

A diplomat reads the Syrian extension .. part 2

In a time, a knowledgeable diplomat, sees that the Syrian regime is not going to fall -as some sees- explaining his point of view according to certain data related to Syria's political and military location, as it is surrounded by Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, Israel and Lebanon.. therefore it lies on the line of a devastating earthquakes.

The Syrian/Israeli direct and indirect attachments plays a role which could not be ignored in the Syrian dilemma fate.. the agreement between the two countries on directing the clash in the occupied Golan which had been calm since decades .. this agreement is still present despite the shakes witnessed by this front not long ago due to exchange of messages between the two countries, plus, Tel Aviv very well knows Syria's ability to activate the situation on the Israeli northern front through southern Lebanon by Hisbulla. also the ability of the Syrian regime to activate the Palestinian camps present on the Syrian soils and employ this movement toward the Golan itself, and this is what Israel -who is occupied with its battle with Hizbulla- fears ..

The diplomat adds: We should not forget the Syrian/Iranian role in playing Hamas card on a large scale and employ this card in pressuring political and military fields.. all this indicate that the interests of the two countries prevent the actual cash and keep it just for talks in order not to turn the cold war into its opposite.

The situation with Lebanon is entirely different, the Lebanese political division regarding the Syrian dilemma and its consequences places the country in trial if the Syrian regime falls "Good forbid", therefore, The Syrian loose chaos will lead to spread the invasion to Lebanon, which means a danger for the Christian existence in the region similar to what happened in Iraq, where sectarianism grew on behalf of the Christian existence.. in addition to the ability of Syria to activate the internal field in many directions.

The diplomat conclude by announcing his belief that the international community do not want to topple Al Assad regime, at least in the current period, because i they really want to topple the regime, they would of taken other steps similar to those taken in Libya, yet the contradiction remains that everyone wants to keep Al Assad regime yet weaker and unable to control the area's pass. and turning Syria from being an initiative country into being a receiver similar to most countries in the region.

The End .. 

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