Aug 22, 2011

A diplomat reads the Syrian extension .. part 1

Mistaken who think that the Syrian regime (lead by president Bashar Al Assad) is going to fall, not just because it had proven regional strength, but because the international community will not easily give it up, as everybody needs it.. and everybody needs president Assad leading it, but not this powerful and steady, as it is not allowed for the Syrian regime to control the region's pass within the current speeding circumstances it is going through.

These words belong to a diplomat who witnessed parts of two centuries, and lived the Syrian dilemma with all its parts, and he explains the overlaps of the dilemma and its deterioration, through Syria's political, geographical and military position.

Syria is surrounded by Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, Israel and Lebanon, therefore, it lies on the line of devastating earthquake. As Jordan fears awakening the Palestinian factor densely present in her lands, noting that Jordanian Palestinians one way or another sympathize with Hamas movement and opposition factions, therefore, Jordan fears that Syria might move those factions which will confuse the kingdom in case it will join the Arabia spring revolutions, which justify the Jordanian silence regarding the Syrian dilemma and did not issue any statements condemning the Syrian regime for its military actions which is almost victorious over the armed opposition... in this context, it is wise to say that Jordan is in need for the Syrian regime for its ability to create the required guarantee.

As for the Iraqi case, it is not different than the Jordanian one, yet it is more complicated due to the Jordanian and American overlap in its plans.. everyone know that the remains of the Iraqi Baath party are loyal to its Syrian counter and its leader Bashar Al Assad, also some of the Iraqi Sunni tribes which had joined the Syrian regime for political, familiar and also geographical reasons, while USA want Assad to push on his followers in Iraq to demand the extension of the US working forces in Iraq for an extra period of time to allow the Iraqi government to rise with the complicated situations, noting that the US administration is weel aware that Damascus is capable on coordinating with Iran regarding the future of Iraq and how to insure the American political, economical and petroleum benefits... therefore, Syria is an American need to press within Iraq toward presenting enough waivers to put together the situation and employ it for the benefit of the US president who needs a foreign victory in order to compensate the economical setback which reduced his popularity, and threatening him with an early leave from presidency..

As for the Syrian/Turkish conflict, the diplomat sees that Turkey's benefit lies with moving Eskanderon "Alawites" of 14 Million people, plus the need to remove the Syrian hand from supporting some of the Kurds factions sympathized with the Syrian regime, and circulating within the Iranian orbit... therefore, the conclusion is that Syria is capable on playing with this card and employ it for its benefits and prepare it for trade, considering that Turkey -in its turn- capable on playing the Syrian successful cards, which will create a fearful balance between the two countries.

Part two to be continued...

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