May 3, 2012

What is the new US plan for Syria... and Lebanon's role?

Ever since USA led the aggression against Syria in March 2011, it had been floundering in failure, and the outcome was always the opposite of its plans that had fluctuated in three aspects:

The plan to simulate the Libyan style by fabricating an internal popular movement to be relied on in the Arab League in order to justify a NATO intervention with a UNSC decision under chapter 7, to the terrorist plan of "Oil Marks" under which the establishment of isolated areas and closing them first, then extending to inside Syria until it eat up the country and topple the regime, to the threat of a NATO intervention (alone) outside the UNSC under the title of "the battle to defend Turkey", the implementation comes after setting bridge heads in neighboring areas, then safe corridors (military protected) with clear and implied international acceptance.. Not to forget the plan of a military coup that reduce time and achieve the goals...

Many plans used by USA during the past 14 months of the aggression against Syria, and all of them were doomed to failure, and all that was accomplished was killings and destruction in the Syrian areas, losses suffered by the Syrian people in general, but they are not classified as victory or achievement of the plan.

In return, the Syrian strength and steadiness in facing the US aggression, dropped the New World Order unipolar project led by USA (a strategic disaster that USA cannot compensate), and led to disrupt the Arab League that was considered the hand of the US in many cases concerning its policies, from the Palestinian case to the conflict with Iran to the Sudan case and others that USA used to pass its resolutions through this league, as well as the decline in US ability to pressure in important international files that she used to threaten its rivals with, such as the Iranian peaceful nuclear issue, and the Lebanese resistance weapons, and the assassination of Rafiq Hariri , and the Lebanese court of extortion that USA made of it the "Israeli" judicial battalion to hunt down the resistance in Lebanon.

A number of US losses must condescend to the instability cases in Egypt, Libya and Tunis, those countries that their rulers had been toppled, and USA interfered to contain the change to suit its politics, but the loss had not been compensated so far, and things remain open to all possibilities that might not be suitable with the US policy.

Under these proceeds, USA finds that admitting its failure in Syria will be similar to losing a WW3 that had been fought by the west with USA as its leader, a loss that its implications will not be bounded to Syrian alone, not even the Middle East, yet it will be interpreted in locating USA's position in the entire world, for this reason we note that it is hard for USA to rush into announcing its defeat and accept its failure in Syria,.

From another side, USA knows that the direction of the peaceful solution promoted now by Annan, will lead to installing Syria in its strategic position with extra boost of its abilities after the crystallization of international blocks that are considered the axis of resistance and opposition that Syria belong to, which means that the success of Annan's peaceful mission with an international auspices is a polite devotion of the US defeat, As USA did not attack Syria for democracy and reforms -Things that USA do not accept in the third world countries, because adopting them mean her ouster- but it was for one goal... Changing the political and strategic position of Syria and finish the axis of  resistance and eliminate the Palestinian case afterword to suit the Zio-American interests.

So if the aggression ended and the above was not achieved, then the defeat would have occurred.

At the level of the US ability and possibility of create alternative plans, USA fully realize that presently she do not have a Syrian team to bet on in order to take control of the country under the dispersion of the opposition and its popular and leadership weakness, as well as the lack of real capabilities and objective circumstances that allows her to push the Syrian people into an overwhelming civil war.. In addition to the fact that the the Syrian army's ability and coherence are strong enough to topple any bet on forcing the armed forces to withdraw or retreat from performing their law and order keeping and defending the Syrian citizens.

Add to that that USA have entered, or will enter, during the coming two months the presidential election race, that will deprive her from the time required to run a file as big and dangerous as the Syrian file.

But apparently, USA had adopted an alternative plan in Syria, that she set its goals with three things, and will be implemented in two phases:

First, through terrorist operations that exhaust the military forces and the popular levels, in order to make it weak and vulnerable.

Second, through a political and military excruciating strike in case the first phase was successful .

As for the goals of this plan:

- Preventing the US defeat or failure.
- Preventing the stability in Syria, as stability means the victory of the Syrian leadership in its defense battle along with its regional allies, and working on foiling the Syrian leadership's success in eliminating the armed cells (relying on the UN observer's mission), and preventing her from controlling the street and proceeding with the reform process (disrupting the elections).
 - Preventing the success of Anna's initiative of peaceful solution, and not announcing its early failure, as USA needs it to gain time.
- Preparing the needed forces to be used when USA is free and ready after its presidential elections for the Syrian file.

As for the field interpretation of the plan:
- Continue the policy of distributing roles between the components of the aggression against Syria fronts, which means a team with the political solution, and a team with arming and military action.
- Intensifying the terrorist acts of killing, destruction and explosions in order to punish the Syrian people for embracing its political regime and its reform movement, and push the people to despair of the ability of the government to regain the control over the situation.
- Intensifying the supply of insurgents and arms into Syria in a way that allows later to open combat fronts and drawing internal front lines that justify the presence of international separation forces and international deterring forces similar to the Arab deterring forces in Lebanon 1976, or the foreign forces in Yugoslavia (General Mod, the head of the UN mission to Syria, is an expert in this field, as he requested 5000 armed observers with armored land and air equipments).
- Mobilizing the military forces on the borders with Syria in order to send them inside Syria in the right time.

In accordance to this plan, the terrorist acts escalated against civilians, and the attacks on Syrian military personnel intensified, as well as the smuggling of insurgents and weapons (Last one was the Libyan ship coming through Lebanon).. Here appeared the central role of Lebanon in the US plan, due to the importance of Northern Lebanon that USA wants to turn into a logistical and field military base to receive insurgents and arms from abroad and smuggle them into Syria... For that, USA sent a Middle East crisis management expert "Jefry Filtman" to Lebanon in an intimidation and cajole mission seeking to:
- Restrain the Lebanese army intervention in the weapons smuggling operations and supporting the armed Syrian opposition from the North. and fold out the file of the arrested Libyan weapons ship and prevent falling in the same mistake, and prevent investing the ship's file at any level, weather internally or internationally, specially with Annan (It was leaked that he threatened to cut off or double the US aids depending on Lebanon's stance).

-Mobilizing the US team in Lebanon (March 14th current) and regroup it to take hold of the North area, then granting them the needed capabilities to regain the power after the 2013 elections without the adoption of an election law that leads to a proper representation that inevitably lead to the continuation of the US team outside the legislative power.

So, USA wants now to gain time and prevent the peaceful solution and stability in Syria, and wants from Lebanon to support her and regain the power for her team.. In short, USA wants to compensate her losses from the Lebanese door, so she would tell the Lebanese "Burn yourself in order to save me".. And even though we don't see new opportunities to make the new US plan against Syrian work, but we fear the adventures of the fools in Lebanon who might respond to USA, and here will be the fire that no one will survive it.

The End..

Written by Maj. Gen. Amin Hutet - Lebanon
Translated by News About Syria - English

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.